If to assume makes an ass of U and Me, then why are we still making assumptions about the people we’re selling to?
Almost 10 years ago, Thinkbox’s 2016 ‘Ad Nation’ study shed light on a troubling truth: advertising professionals don’t have as firm a grasp on the media habits of the general public as they think they do. The study, conducted again in 2022, confirmed that the gap between what adland thinks people are doing and what they’re actually doing, remains stubbornly wide.
In simple terms, no one is as bored of your own ads as you are; they probably haven’t even seen them. I bet no one in the ‘normal’ world has an opinion on the new mum Burger King ad, noticed the change of the North Face strapline or the misstep of the recent Heinz pasta sauce ads.
It’s not hard to see why this happens. If you work in the advertising industry, you’re surrounded by people just like you. People who live and breathe the latest platforms and media trends, whether it’s TikTok, Instagram, or streaming giants like Netflix. You might assume, then, that the wider public is behaving the same way. But the reality is more nuanced.
The 2022 Thinkbox research paints a very different picture
While ad professionals are quick to emphasise the rise of platforms like TikTok, in reality, only 17% of the UK public reported using TikTok in the past three months in the 2022 report. By contrast, 35% of advertising professionals believed that figure to be much higher. The report’s figures on Instagram tell the same story; 34% of the UK public reported using Instagram in the past three months. In contrast, 86% of ad professionals had accessed Instagram in the same period. This mismatch highlights a broader issue: our own habits, preferences, and assumptions can mislead us when it comes to understanding the people we’re actually trying to reach.
So, if the public isn’t all glued to TikTok, where are they? It turns out they’re still watching live TV, using Facebook, and tuning into YouTube in large numbers. According to the research, 83% of the UK public reported using linear TV in the past three months — a figure that, while lower than it might have been a decade ago, still dwarves TikTok’s reach.
Meanwhile, 65% of people are reported regularly using YouTube, a platform that many in the industry wrongly assume has been overtaken by flashier rivals and is often forgotten about or left to independent creators.
There are other battles within the war for consumer attention that are also raging beyond this space. A Nielsen report in 2023 highlighted 64% of consumers actively avoided ads on free video platforms, and this trend will likely continue upwards.
Deloitte reported that younger generations are demonstrating less channel loyalty and while they are highly engaged with digital media but are less loyal to specific channels compared to older generations. Interestingly, the perceived effectiveness of CTV/streaming investments was only 49%, showing that even though marketers are increasing spend in these areas, they aren’t seeing strong returns.
While you are at it, check your own bias
This gap between perception and reality often stems from a combination of factors, chief among them what’s known as projection bias. Simply put, we assume that other people behave in the same way we do. If we spend hours multi-screening between our laptops and smartphones while watching Netflix, we assume everyone else does too. But that’s not necessarily the case.
Thinkbox’s study reveals that ad professionals are significantly more likely to multi-screen — 47% of the time — while watching TV, compared to just 31% of the general public. This illustrates how our daily habits as media professionals can distort our understanding of broader trends. Then there’s the issue of groupthink. Advertising professionals are often based in major cities, particularly London, and tend to work alongside people who share similar interests and media habits. This can create echo chambers, where assumptions are reinforced by the people around us. It’s all too easy for us to believe that TikTok is the dominant platform when that’s what our colleagues are talking about over lunch.
There’s also a risk in relying too heavily on self-reported data. People are often unreliable narrators of their own habits, and this isn’t unique to the general public. Social desirability bias — the tendency to give answers that sound more respectable or align with social norms — can skew responses. For instance, we might tell ourselves (and others) that we watch documentaries, while quietly bingeing reality TV. Advertising professionals, on the other hand, might report higher use of platforms like TikTok and Instagram because these are perceived as ‘cool’ or forward-thinking, rather than because they truly dominate their personal media diet.
The impact on strategy
All of this has real implications for how advertising strategies are shaped. If ad people overestimate the public’s use of certain platforms, they may misallocate budgets, pouring resources into channels that don’t deliver the audience they’re expecting. The risk of falling into confirmation bias — where we seek out data that supports our existing beliefs — also looms large. If we believe TikTok is the future, we’re more likely to latch onto statistics that confirm this narrative, while downplaying those that challenge it.
And yet, while it’s easy to point the finger at adland’s assumptions, the reality is that the public’s media consumption habits are complex and evolving. The pandemic, in particular, has reshaped how many people engage with media. The rise of subscription streaming services, like Netflix and Amazon Prime, has certainly altered the landscape, but it hasn’t eclipsed traditional media in the way many might assume.
Thinkbox’s data shows that 63% of TV viewing time is still spent watching live programmes — a figure that’s often overlooked in an industry obsessed with what’s ‘next’. Similarly, Facebook, despite frequent predictions of its demise, remains one of the most-used platforms among the general public, even as younger audiences gravitate toward newer platforms like TikTok.
To bring things bang up to the minute, the recent research from System 1, presented at the IPA conference in October 2024, identified that consistency is king when it comes to resonance. Be it a slogan, character, celebrity or brand assets — don’t fall out of love with it because you are tired of it.
What can Adland learn?
The first step is to acknowledge our own biases. It’s tempting to believe that our personal media habits reflect the wider population, but the data suggests otherwise. We need to get better at listening, both to the data and to the real people we’re trying to reach, not just the statistics.
This might mean returning to some tried-and-tested methods. Ethnography, for instance — observing and engaging with real people in their everyday environments — can reveal insights that surveys and self-reported data often miss. It might also mean taking a more balanced approach to media planning, ensuring that we don’t get swept up by the allure of new platforms at the expense of those that are still delivering large audiences.
Above all, it means being willing to question our assumptions. Just because something is popular in the media bubble doesn’t mean it’s a silver bullet for every audience. Advertising, at its best, is about understanding people, not just trends. And if we keep making assumptions about our audience, we risk missing them altogether. It would also be remiss of me not to mention, find a bloody good research agency who understands all this. And don’t swap your CMOs and ad agencies around so much that you lose the consistency of your brand positioning — no one else is as close to it as you are.
Featured image: Lisa Fotios / Pexels