In the ever-evolving theatre of politics, where perception reigns supreme, politicians can be seen as brands vying for the public’s attention and, ultimately, their vote. Just as consumers navigate a marketplace, the electorate grapples with a constellation of political figures, each projecting an image, a promise, and a set of values.
In an election where the polls have shifted very little, the Ipsos Brand Success Framework offers a unique way to evaluate Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Leader of the Opposition Sir Keir Starmer as brands, providing insight into what is cutting through with voters.
How do Brand Sunak and Brand Starmer measure up against the three pillars of the framework: Shaping Expectations (what people think and know about the brand), in Context (what’s going on in people’s lives and the world around them), and with Empathy (a brand’s ability to understand what’s important to people)?
Lacking empathy can lead to brand decline
After years of lurching from one crisis to another, and persistent cost of living pressures, Empathy (consisting of Understands people like me, Shares my values, Gives voice to my concerns) has emerged as the most important factor in predicting voting intention in the 2024 general election.
Labour (38%) are tapping into Empathy more successfully than the Conservative Party (16%). In addition, Sunak is more strongly associated with negative traits that indicate a lack of empathy such as being ‘out of touch’ (49% vs. 28% Starmer) and ‘uncaring’ (40% vs. 16% Starmer), as well as being spontaneously associated with ‘looking after the rich’.
All of which underlines a disconnect between his brand and much of the electorate.
You don’t have to be great. Just be better
Brand Sunak is grappling with a -33% net positive rating of spontaneous associations. Weighed down by negative associations, Sunak, despite his attempts to project an image of competence, finds himself battling the perception of being out of touch, and trailing behind Starmer on aspects of policy, except for ‘supports business interests’.
Conversely, Brand Starmer enjoys a more balanced perception, albeit with a net positive rating of spontaneous associations hovering at a modest -5%. For Starmer, spontaneous associations with being ethical emerge as defining characteristics. However, the shadow of ‘boring’ lingers. This seemingly innocuous term may or may not pose a challenge. While it might be dampening enthusiasm for Brand Starmer among some, a return to boring politics in the UK might be a welcome relief for others.
Although Starmer is more likely to be seen positively on personality strengths (vs. Sunak), these are outweighed by Sunak’s negatives. Brand Starmer is benefiting from low expectations of Brand Sunak. This highlights a critical insight: in politics, as in the marketplace, you don’t have to be great, just better than the competition.
Context matters
Starmer may not evoke the same level of passionate support as some of his predecessors, but we see his brand aligning more effectively than Sunak’s with the current UK context. The public places higher expectations on Starmer to deliver on critical issues like ‘improving public services’, ‘enabling ordinary people to improve their lives’, and ‘tackling inequality’.
This alignment with prevalent societal concerns positions Starmer advantageously within the current political landscape.
When we consider the current UK context, characterised by a yearning for change and a desire for leaders who understand the everyday challenges facing ordinary people, the challenge for Sunak, and the Conservative Party has been to reshape expectations accordingly. Thus far, they have not managed to convince enough of the electorate that they can tackle the issues facing ordinary Britons.
Everything you do as a brand counts. Forever
A note of caution for brands when attempting to re-shape expectations. Our research offers a compelling case study in the enduring power of brand legacy. Despite the passage of time the Iraq war is still the most spontaneous association with Tony Blair, and Margaret Thatcher is still associated with ‘milk snatcher’ despite stopping the provision of milk to junior schools 9 years before she became Prime Minister.
These serve as potent reminders that a brand’s past can cast a long shadow, and re-shaping expectations for the future must take account of that past.
Continually re-shaping expectations, in context, with empathy is critical for long-term brand health
Should he win, Starmer will need to walk the talk, as brand expectations are shaped by our experiences of a brand. The danger in office for Brand Starmer is two-fold:
- First, whether he can translate his perceived competence into tangible outcomes will be the ultimate test of his brand’s resilience. Failure to do so risks eroding public trust and confidence, potentially impacting future electoral success
- Second, if he finds himself up against an opponent who does not suffer from the same low expectations as Sunak, can he generate genuine enthusiasm for his leadership? Starmer may one day find that he needs to inject more of a sense of dynamism into his brand
Politicians, as well as commercial brands, would be well advised to heed the lessons of brand success, recognising that it hinges not only on their policies, but also on their ability to continually adapt to changing context and connect with people on an emotional level. Authenticity, empathy, and a genuine understanding of the hopes, fears and values of the British people are invaluable assets in the relentless court of public opinion.
Featured image: D-Day mock-up billboard / Ben Golik